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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.

“If we just sold the data to Kalshi in order to list the markets but no one was coming in and placing liquidity, there’s no point in them listing the markets,” Monk said. “We also need to supply the data to the market makers to inform their models.”

Catalist initially received a list of fewer than 10 potential market makers from Kalshi. It has since completed agreements with close to 20 and is engaging with approximately another 20.

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Latest ARC data revealed that US consumers purchased 25.8 million passenger trips in August 2026 (+5%), spending 19% more on air travel than they did a year ago. The average ticket price soared 17% year-over-year to $624, with economy tickets at $569 (+17%) and premium classes at $1,454 (+11%).

August’s totals set a new record for ARC-reported and settled sales, reflecting the continued strength of the U.S. travel market and continued demand,” said Steve Solomon, ARC’s chief commercial officer. “The strong summer trends from June and July carried into August, with travel to both U.S. domestic and international destinations remaining steady from the prior month and above 2025 levels.”

Air travel is booming, but Las Vegas isn’t seeing the same lift, as tourism numbers remain turbulent.